The key word to understand the Bolivian reality before and after the militarization (coup d’état) of the government house on 26 June is “uncertainty”.
It is important to comment on the situation in Bolivia when this event began; there was already a context of uncertainty marked by the dollar crisis and an internal conflict in the governing party.
With regard to the first, we are living in a situation in which there is a shortage of dollars in which, on the one hand, the official exchange price is maintained (with limits for exchanging currency through banks), but a clandestine parallel market for buying and selling dollars has been generated in which the price is notoriously higher; this generates a situation of speculation and price increases that has gradually been affecting the pockets of the general population.
The internal conflict within the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), the current governing party, is a struggle to define its leadership between former president Evo Morales and current president Luis Arce, which, among other things, has led to a rupture between the executive and legislative branches of government. This has led to situations in which different credits and other legal proposals demanded by the executive power are not approved by the legislative power, causing a situation of political stagnation.
In this context, the coup attempt exacerbated the uncertainty experienced by the population. On the one hand, as the situation unfolded, people began to crowd into supermarkets and neighbourhood shops to stock up on basic necessities, and in banks and exchange offices, the queues for dollars intensified. The result was increased speculation and price hikes that lasted for several weeks after the event and continue to this day. On the other hand, the banks increased their policies of limiting dollar payments by creating higher limits on internet payments and decreasing the authorised amounts of monthly credit or debit cards for payments in dollars from that same day, which made the “dollar shortage” situation even more strongly felt. Shortly after the event, a fuel crisis was also generated, due to a situation in Chile’s ports, which only added to the uncertainty felt by the population regarding the day-to-day economic situation.
However, in addition to the day-to-day economy, there is a strong political uncertainty that was also exacerbated after the event. During the coup attempt, several members of the Arcista wing began to say that Evo Morales was responsible for the whole thing; and later, General Zúñiga, at that time commander of the Armed Forces and the main actor in the event, began a speech in which he spoke of “an elite that took over the state” and demanded the release of opposition figures such as Jeanine Añez and Fernando Camacho (both important actors during the conflicts of 2019). After he was captured, however, General Zúñiga himself blamed Arce, indicating that he was seeking a self-coup orchestrated in conjunction with the armed forces.
In this sense, it is difficult for the general population to have a clear view of the events that took place that afternoon. There are many among the population who believe that it was all theatre (theatrical performance); there are others who accept the version that Evo Morales was behind the events, and there are others who believe that it was an affront by the military itself. In this sense, what prevails in Bolivian society today is uncertainty about the institutions of the state; that is, after the events, people have almost completely lost confidence in the state. This is also currently manifesting itself in the lack of confidence in the recently published preliminary results of the 2024 Census. This distrust in the institutions translates into a lack of credibility in any policy to be implemented, and several social sectors have begun to demand Arce’s resignation and new elections, such as the trade unions and transport workers, as well as some peasant groups sympathetic to Evo Morales. On the other hand, fascist and militarist discourse also increased from that day onwards; there are sectors of the Bolivian population who think that the solution to the current situation is “the return of the military governement”, with a misguided nostalgia for the military dictatorships that caused so much pain and death in the country.
As a result of all this, there was also a notorious change in President Arce’s economic policies. To tackle the economic situation, the president held meetings with the Central Obrera Boliviana (workers’ association), without reaching clear proposals or consensus. He then opted to meet with the country’s business sector, and as a result of these meetings with businessmen, market liberalization policies are being implemented in some areas (tariffs on medicines were recently reduced) and there is a clear escalation in the reduction of restrictions for the agro-industrial sector. The latter is particularly threatening, as it comes in the midst of a context of fires in the Amazon, most of which have been caused by arson and are obviously totally unattended; reducing restrictions on agriculture could mean that this sector is being used to continue its damage to mother earth.
They are trying to get out of a complex economic situation by favouring powerful sectors of society (business and agro-industry) but ordinary people find nothing to give them security and certainty in their own situation, prices continue to rise, the dollar situation worsens and uncontrollable fires terrorize the people of the east.
A week ago Evo Morales called for a march that reached La Paz, the seat of government, threatening to encircle the area and provoke the resignation of the current president if his demands, including the resignation of several ministers, are not met. One of the main reasons for these pressure measures led by Morales is his determination to be the MAS candidate for the next presidential elections despite not having the support of a majority within his party. This march led to conflicts, riots and clashes between those who support Evo Morales and those who support President Arce.
In this context of uncertainty, the aforementioned distrust of the 2024 Census data could further aggravate regional conflict in the country, a conflict that has historically always used the least favoured sectors as cannon fodder.
Lay group JPIC La Paz
